WASHINGTON, Aug. 1 (DC Times Online) — The National Hurricane Center’s Aug. 1 Tropical Weather Outlook forecast no tropical activity in the Atlantic, Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico during the following week. Residents in the United States do not have a storm-specific threat to prepare for now, but should continue checking the center’s seven-day outlook as the season progresses.
The quiet forecast comes as El Niño strengthens over the Pacific. The climate pattern is increasing upper-level winds over the Atlantic, creating wind shear that can disrupt thunderstorms and prevent tropical systems from organizing.
Why the Atlantic is quiet
The Atlantic hurricane season began June 1. By July 31, two named storms had formed, according to the FOX Forecast Center. That pace is slower than some seasonal forecasts suggested, although the number of storms so far does not determine how active the rest of the season will be.
Several factors are working against development. El Niño is producing hostile winds high in the atmosphere. Wind shear occurs when winds change speed or direction with height; strong shear can tilt or break apart the thunderstorms that help a tropical system grow.
Saharan dust and dry, stable air are also spreading across parts of the tropical Atlantic. That air limits the thunderstorms needed for tropical development, according to the FOX Forecast Center and the National Hurricane Center’s outlook.
Ocean temperatures are providing some support for development. Warmer water can fuel thunderstorms, but the FOX Forecast Center said that influence was being offset by El Niño and the hostile wind pattern.
What is moving off Africa?
Several tropical waves were moving from the African coast into the Atlantic’s Main Development Region, the area between the west coast of Africa and the Caribbean where many long-tracking hurricanes form.
Their presence does not mean a storm will develop. Forecasters are watching whether each wave can produce organized thunderstorms while facing wind shear, Saharan dust and other dry air. Ocean temperatures will also affect the waves’ chances.
The National Hurricane Center’s outlook issued around Aug. 1 listed no areas of interest and showed essentially no chance of tropical development during the next seven days, according to the outlook reported by Orbis Weather. The center’s Aug. 1 forecast also called for no activity in the Atlantic basin through the following week.
Could the season still become active?
Yes. A quiet start does not rule out storms later in the season, especially because Atlantic activity typically increases after early August. But a stronger El Niño can continue to make the environment less favorable, particularly in the Main Development Region.
The Climate Prediction Center and NOAA have described El Niño as strengthening. Forecasts cited by Fox Weather said the event could rank among the strongest since 1950. The supplied forecasts do not establish that it will set an official record, and the strength of the event remains a forecast rather than a final measurement.
Seasonal forecasts also differ. NOAA was reported as forecasting eight to 14 named storms, three to six hurricanes and one to three major hurricanes. Colorado State University’s forecast called for 11 named storms, five hurricanes and two major hurricanes. AccuWeather forecast eight to 14 named storms, four to seven hurricanes and two to four major hurricanes.
Those outlooks cover the entire season, not just the storms that had formed by July 31. They are broad estimates and can change as ocean and atmospheric conditions evolve.
What should residents do now?
With no area of interest identified and no tropical activity expected during the next seven days, the National Hurricane Center’s outlook does not call for storm-specific action. Residents should still monitor the center’s official Tropical Weather Outlook, especially if a tropical wave moves closer to the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico or Southeast coast.
The key forecast question is whether El Niño’s wind shear and the Atlantic’s dry air continue to overpower warm ocean waters. If they do, development may remain limited. If those hostile conditions weaken, one of the waves moving west from Africa—or a system that forms closer to the United States—could become more organized.
